Search Results - subject:"Real Time data"

Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available

Lee, Kevin; Olekalns, Nilss; Shields, Kalvinder - Department of Economics, Leicester University - 2008

INFORMATION WHEN REAL TIME DATA ARE AVAILABLE Kevin Lee, University of Leicester, UK Nilss Olekalns, University of … Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available ∗ by Kevin Lee … 1990q3—1991q2 and 2001q1—2001q4. Keywords: Structural Modelling, Real Time Data, Nowcasting, Business Cycles. JEL …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005385069

Information in the revision process of real-time datasets

Corradi, Valentina; Fernandez, Andres; Swanson, Norman - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2008

Rationality of early release data is typically tested using linear regressions. Thus, failure to reject the null does not rule out the possibility of nonlinear dependence. This paper proposes two tests which instead have power against generic nonlinear alternatives. A Monte Carlo study shows...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387506

The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications

Fernandez, Adriana Z.; Koenig, Evan F.; … - In: Staff Papers (2008) Jun

We look at how well several alternative Taylor rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions in real time, using the newly developed Giacomini and Rossi (2007) test for non-nested model selection in the presence of (possible) parameter instability. Further, we isolate those...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005410540

Federal Reserve Policy viewed through a Money Supply Loss

Chowdhury, Ibrahim; Schabert, Andreas - Tinbergen Instituut - 2008

Federal Reserve nonborrowed reserve supply systematically responded to changes in inflation and in the output gap over the period 1969-2000. While the feedback from output gap is always negative, the response of money supply to changes in inflation varies considerably across time. Nonborrowed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256606

Seasonality in revisions of macroeconomic data

Franses, Philip Hans; Segers, Rene - Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus … - 2008

We analyze five vintages of eighteen quarterly macroeconomic variables for the Netherlands and we focus on the degree of deterministic seasonality in these series. We document that the data show most such deterministic seasonality for their first release vintage and for the last available...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731710

Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets - a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise

Barhoumi, Karim; Benk, Szilard; Cristadoro, Riccardo; … - 2008

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606236

Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise.

Barhoumi, K.; Rünstler, G.; Cristadoro, R.; Den Reijer, A. - Banque de France - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036203

The Calibration of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts

Galbraith, John; Norden, Simon van - Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche en Analyse des … - 2008

A probabilistic forecast is the estimated probability with which a future event will satisfy a specified criterion. One interesting feature of such forecasts is their calibration, or the match between predicted probabilities and actual outcome probabilities. Calibration has been evaluated in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100636

Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise

Barhoumi, K.; Benk, S.; Cristadoro, R.; Reijer, A. Den; … - Nationale Bank van België/Banque national de Belqique (BNB) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005060019

Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data

Bernoth, Kerstin; Hallet, Andrew Hughes; Lewis, John - de Nederlandsche Bank - 2008

policymakers were trying to do requires real time data. This paper compares fiscal policy reaction functions for 14 European … only with ex post data; the real time data suggests that policymakers are seeking to run counter cyclical discretionary …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005021848