We propose a method for indentifying discretionary fiscal policy with real time data. The starting point is the …

: Real-time data, prediction, structural change ∗ Clark (corresponding author): Economic Research Dept.; Federal Reserve Bank … variable (with particular emphasis on the output and inflation measures) using real–time data. For each of the 18 variable … structural changes. Section 3 describes the real-time data used as well as specifics on model estimation and evaluation. Section …

October 1987 to July 2004, using real-time data for both the CLI and IP. We flnd that allowing for asymmetric lead times leads … 2004. The next section considers out-of-sample forecasting of turning points and IP growth based on real-time data … substantial revisions after their initial release, a realistic assessment of this issue requires the use of real-time data that …