Search Results - subject:"Real Time data"

Early warning or just wise after the event? The problem of using cyclically adjusted budget deficits for fiscal surveillance

Hallett, Andrew Hughes; Kattai, Rasmus; Lewis, John - Eesti Pank - 2007

The effectiveness of cyclically adjusted balances (CABs) as an indicator of the health of public finances depends on the accuracy with which cyclically adjusted figures can be calculated in real time. This paper measures the accuracy of such figures using a specially constructed real time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005187640

Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?

Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - Narodowy Bank Polski - 2007

1994–2006. We apply the Philadelphia Fed “Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists,” described by Croushore and Stark (2001a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009641442

Federal Reserve Policy viewed through a Money Supply Lens

Chowdhury, Ibrahim; Schabert, Andreas - Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) - 2007

macroeconomic indicators. Applying ex-post and real-time data for the postwar period, we provide evidence that nonborrowed reserves …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008925016

Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?

Rubaszek, Michal; Skrzypczynski, Pawel - Zakład Ekonometrii Stosowanej, Szkoła Główna … - 2007

1994-2006. We apply the Philadelphia Fed “Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists,” described by Croushore and Stark (2001a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113472

Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - 2007

forecast accuracy and precision. The novelty of our study relies on the interpretation of the vintages of a real time data base … models to predict inflation and GDP growth, in the three dimensions of accuracy, uncertainty and stability by using the real-time … data set for macroeconomists developed at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Instead of following the common …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604892

How to treat benchmark revisions? The case of German production and orders statistics

Knetsch, Thomas A.; Reimers, Hans-Eggert - 2006

Elements of an econometric examination of benchmark revisions in real-time data are suggested. Structural break tests …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295827

Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases

Giannone, Domenico; Reichlin, Lucrezia; Small, David H. - 2006

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604679

Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty

Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin; Mise, Emi; Shields, Kalvinder - Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics - 2006

This paper describes an approach that accommodates in a coherent way three types of uncertainty when measuring the output gap. These are trend uncertainty (associated with the choice of model and de-trending technique), estimation uncertainty (with a given model) and data uncertainty (associated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005509615

Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities

Clark, Todd E.; McCracken, Michael W. - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - 2006

Small-scale VARs have come to be widely used in macroeconomics, for purposes ranging from forecasting output, prices, and interest rates to modeling expectations formation in theoretical models. However, a body of recent work suggests such VAR models may be prone to instabilities. In the face of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005515059

Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Brissimis, Sophocles N.; Magginas, Nicholas S. - Bank of Greece - 2006

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated on quarterly data spanning the period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005523517