This paper studies the following problem. An agent takes actions based on a possibly misspecified model. The agent is 'large', in the sense that his actions influence the model he is trying to learn about. The agent is aware of potential model misspecification and tries to detect it, in...

Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are...

We prove the large deviation principle for the posterior distributions on the (unknown) parameter of a multivariate autoregressive process with i.i.d. Normal innovations. As a particular case, we recover a previous result for univariate first-order autoregressive processes. We also show that the...

We prove large deviation principles for two versions of fractional Poisson processes: the main version is a renewal process, the alternative version is a weighted Poisson process. We also present asymptotic results for the ruin probabilities of an insurance model with a fractional Poisson claim...

This paper studies the reputation effect in which a long-lived player faces a sequence of uninformed short-lived players and the uninformed players receive informative but noisy exogenous signals about the type of the long-lived player. We provide an explicit lower bound on all Nash equilibrium...