Using a new database on global multinational production (MP), I document that world multinational enterprise (MNE) sales declined as sharply as trade during the Great Recession. This collapse was driven by MNEs from a few key headquarters countries, associated with steeper GDP declines in...

Thailand’s economy showed signs of mild improvement in November supported by stronger exports and retail trade. Government stimulus measures, including the co-payment scheme and travel incentives, helped lift activity in hotels and restaurants, though overall household consumption remained...

Lebanon’s economy recorded positive growth in 2025, marking a modest step toward a potential path for long-term recovery. The improvement reflects a rebound in tourism, alongside early signs of macroeconomic stabilization and some base-effect-driven gains following years of deep contraction....

We develop a novel sentiment measure derived from survey data to empirically vali date the Minsky-Kindleberger view on financial crises. Using survey data from multiple countries, we decompose beliefs into components explained by public information that are orthogonal to optimal machine beliefs,...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global risk shocks (GRS) in a small open economy and their implications for the identification of monetary policy shocks. I construct a novel proxy for GRS based on unexpected daily innovations in the VIX and employ it as an external instrument in...