We apply a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. We illustrate that the methodology can be quite successfully applied to discriminate between stochastic and...

We re-examine the size of the underground economy in the U.S. between 1972 and 2006, after properly adjusting for several statistical issues relating to its estimation. The dynamic error-correction-based currency demand approach confirms that income tax rates have no contemporaneous effect on...

We propose a multivariate generalization of the multiplicative volatility model of Engle and Rangel (2008), which has a nonparametric long run component and a unit multivariate GARCH short run dynamic component. We suggest various kernel-based estimation procedures for the parametric and...

DAMGARCH is a new model that extends the VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003) by introducing multiple thresholds and time-dependent structure in the asymmetry of the conditional variances. Analytical expressions for the news impact surface implied by the new model are also presented....

This paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and foreign direct investment (FDI), with reference to its implications on economic growth. For the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with...

Plans are far advanced to form a second monetary union, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), in Africa. While much attention is being placed on convergence criteria and preparedness of the five aspiring member states, less attention is being placed on how the dynamics of inflation in...

Plans are far advanced to form a second monetary union, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), in Africa. While much attention is being placed on convergence criteria and preparedness of the five aspiring member states, less attention is being placed on the extent to which the dynamics of...

In this paper consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi maximum like-lihood estimator in the level-effect ARCH model of Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (1992) is established. We consider explicitly the case where the parameters of the conditional heteroskedastic process are in the...

This note studies the geometric ergodicity of nonlinear autoregressive models with conditionally heteroskedastic errors. A nonlinear autoregression of order p (AR(p)) with the conditional variance specified as the conventional linear autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model of order q...