This paper examines the out‐of‐sample forecast performance of sectoral stock market indicators for real GDP, private consumption and investment growth up to 4 quarters ahead in the US and the euro area. Our findings are that the predictive content of sectoral stock market indicators: i) is...

This paper studies empirically the dynamic interactions between asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations during the Volcker-Greenspan period. Using a simple structural vector autoregression framework, we investigate the effects of monetary policy on output, inflation and asset...

We first illustrate that emerging markets (EMs) face a shortage of financial assets, with financial assets not growing as rapidly as domestic savings. We then estimate the asset shortage in EMs for 1995-2008. We develop a model that explains how asset shortage develop, and then econometrically...

The paper takes stock of the impact of the global financial crisis that began in late 2007 on banking sectors of Asian low-income countries, by exploring bank-level data provided by Bankscope. The paper examines three key channels of possible crisis spillovers: exposures to (i) valuation changes...

This paper analyzes the impact of global and regional spillovers to GCC equity markets. GCC equity markets were impacted by spillovers from U.S. equity markets despite varying degrees of foreign participation. Spillovers from regional equity markets were also important but the magnitude of the...

The recent financial crisis has demonstrated in an impressive way that boom/bust cycles can have devastating effects on the real economy. This paper aims at contributing to the literature on early warning indicator exercises for asset price booms. Using a sample of 17 industrialized OECD...