We examine the efficacy with which the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) predicts future (30 day forward) S&P realized volatility. We find that the VIX’s accuracy is about 63%. An alternative framework that we present, built on asymptotic distribution theory, predicts this volatility with an...

This study investigates the impacts of crude oil-market-specific fundamental factors and financial indicators on the realized volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) is applied to...

This paper extends the Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV-DPM) model of Jensen and Maheu (2010). Instead of using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) to model return innovations, we use an infinite hidden Markov model (IHMM). This allows for time variation in the return density...

We aim to assess the impact of a pandemic data point on the calibration of a stochastic multi-population mortality projection model and its resulting projections for future mortality rates. Throughout the paper, we put focus on the Li and Lee mortality model, which has become a standard for...

We study how changes to the informativeness of signals in Bayesian games and single‐agent decision problems affect the distribution of equilibrium actions. Focusing on supermodular environments, we provide conditions under which a more precise private signal for one agent leads to an...

This article studies socially optimal allocations, from the point of view of a benevolent social planner, in environments characterized by fixed resources, endogenous fertility, and full information. Individuals in our environment are fully rational and altruistic toward their descendants. Our...

This article presents a new approach for building robust portfolios based on stochastic efficiency analysis and periods of market downturn. The empirical analysis is done on assets traded on the Brazil Stock Exchange, B3 (Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão). We start with information on the assets from...

This paper is concerned with estimation of functionals of a latent weight function that satisfies possibly high‐dimensional multiplicative moment conditions. Main examples are functionals of stochastic discount factors in asset pricing, missing data problems, and treatment effects. We propose...

This paper proposes a Skewed Stochastic Volatility (SSV) model to model time varying, asymmetric forecast distributions to estimate Growth at Risk as introduced in Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone's (2019) seminal paper "Vulnerable Growth". In contrary to their semi-parametric approach, the SSV...