This paper develops an efficient estimation procedure for time-varying parameter autoregressive models with stochastic volatility. Necessary restrictions are imposed on the time-varying autoregressive parameters, thus stability conditions are satisfied. We show that a conditional Gaussian...

We find explicit formulas for the moments of the time integral of an exponential Lévy process. We consider both the cases of unconditional moments and conditional on the Lévy process level at the endpoints of the time interval. We propose a new methodology for reconstructing the unknown...

This paper presents a new approach to constructing multistep combination forecasts in a nonstationary framework with stochastic and deterministic trends. Existing forecast combination approaches in the stationary setup typically target the in-sample asymptotic mean squared error (AMSE) relying...

This paper proposes a set of novel pricing factors for currency returns that are motivated by microstructure models. In so doing, we bring two strands of the exchange rate literature, namely market-microstructure and risk-based models, closer together. Our novel factors use order flow data to...

This paper develops an efficient estimation procedure for time-varying parameter autoregressive models with stochastic volatility. Necessary restrictions are imposed on the time-varying autoregressive parameters, thus stability conditions are satisfied. We show that a conditional Gaussian...

Bilateral Gamma processes generalize the Variance Gamma process and allow to capture more precisely the differences between upward and downward moves of financial returns, notably in terms of jump speed, frequency, and size. Like in most other pure jump models, option pricing under Bilateral...

In actuarial practice, the mixture model is one widely applied statistical method to model the insurance loss data. Although the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm usually plays an essential tool for the parameter estimation of mixture models, it suffers from other issues which cause...

I study the business cycle properties of wage posting models with random search, for which the distributions of employment and wages play a nontrivial role for the equilibrium path. In fact, the main result of this paper is that the distribution of firms is one of the most important elements to...

Stochastic volatility models are very flexible models able to characterize financial volatility evolution. This article explores computational capabilities based on Graphical Processing Units to simulate many Monte Carlo Markov chains in estimating stochastic volatility model parameters through...