This paper explores the effects of measurement error on dynamic forecasting models. The paper sets out to illustrate a trade off that confronts forecasters and policymakers when they use data that are measured with error. On the one hand, observations on recent data give valuable clues as to the...

We develop and test a robust procedure for extracting an underlying signal in form of a time-varying trend from very noisy time series. The application we have in mind is online monitoring data measured in intensive care, where we find periods of relative constancy, slow monotonic trends, level...

We develop and test a robust procedure for extracting an underlying signal in form of a time-varying trend from very noisy time series. The application we have in mind is online monitoring data measured in intensive care, where we find periods of relative constancy, slow monotonic trends, level...

Data from the automatic monitoring of intensive care patients exhibits trends, outliers, and level changes as well as periods of relative constancy. All this is overlaid with a high level of noise and there are dependencies between the different items measured. Current monitoring systems tend to...

Data from the automatic monitoring of intensive care patients exhibits trends, outliers, and level changes as well as periods of relative constancy. All this is overlaid with a high level of noise and there are dependencies between the different items measured. Current monitoring systems tend to...