:01-2012:08 period employing signals approach improved by Kaminsky, Lizando and Reinhart (1998) [KLR]. Our study is necessary and timely …

; Penalized Splines; Semiparametric Regression; Signals Approach; Sovereign Debt Crisis; Sovereign Risk Premiums … interpreted as a sign of an existing crisis in the respective country. Using the signals approach, the early-warning capabilities … indicators. In a third step, the methodology of the signals approach is extended to include also results on significance. …

The signals approach as an early warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far … crisis probability in three applications of the signals approach to different crisis types. To that end, we propose … signals approach yield economically meaningful and statistically significant results and (2) that composite indicators …

The signals approach as an early warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far … crisis probability in three applications of the signals approach to different crisis types. To that end, we propose … signals approach yield economically meaningful and statistically significant results and (2) that composite indicators …

indicators to send early-warnings of debt crises using a signals approach for the study of indicators and the construction of …

indicators to send early-warnings of debt crises using a signals approach for the study of indicators and the construction of …

indicators to send early-warnings of debt crises using a signals approach for the study of indicators and the construction of …

crisis to conduct an out-of-sample experiment. In sum, the signals approach was not able to forecast the outof- sample crisis …