This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not by how well it fits historical data but on its ability to accurately predict out-of-sample actual data. Second, a model/method is selected among several run in parallel using...

New point and interval estimators for quantiles that employ a control variate are introduced. The properties of these estimators do not depend on the usual assumption of joint normality between the random variable of interest and the control. Illustrative examples for queueing and stochastic...

This paper analyzes the impact of forecasting on inventory decisions in a large physical distribution system. Alternative forecasting models are evaluated by developing tradeoff curves between inventory investment and customer service. The results demonstrate that the choice of forecasting model...

For given external arrival process and given service-time distributions, the object is to determine the order of infinite-capacity single-server queues in series that minimizes the long-run average sojourn time per customer. We gain additional insight into this queueing design problem, and...