We show that the trend of the one-sided HP filter can be asymptotically approximated by the Holt-Winters (HW) filter. The later is an elegant, moving average representation and facilitates the computation of trends tremendously. We confirm the accuracy of this approximation empirically by...

We show that the trend of the one-sided HP filter can be asymptotically approximated by the Holt-Winters (HW) filter. The later is an elegant, moving average representation and facilitates the computation of trends tremendously. We confirm the accuracy of this approximation empirically by...

We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations, however convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a...

This paper studies how the sensitivity of consumption to income has changed over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. In standard theory, greater financial integration facilitates international borrowing and lending, helping to reduce the sensitivity of consumption growth to...

A textbook provision program in Sierra Leone demonstrates how volatility in the flow of government-provided learning inputs to schools can induce storage of these inputs by school administrators to smooth future consumption. This process in turn leads to low current utilization of inputs for...