Search Results - subject:"Sovereign Defaults"

International Evidenceon Fiscal Solvency; Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?

Mendoza, Enrique G.; Ostry, Jonathan David - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

This paper looks at fiscal solvency and public debt sustainability in both emerging market and advanced countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional relationship between public debt and the primary fiscal balance, is established in both groups of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264206

The cost of defaults: the impact of haircuts on economic growth

Marchesi, Silvia; Prato, Valeria - Dipartimento di Economia, Metodi Quantitativi e … - 2013

This paper studies the impact of debt default on economic growth taking into account the depth of a debt restructuring. More specifically, creditors' losses (or haircuts) are used as proxies of the severity of the default episodes. Analyzing 89 defaults in 72 countries over the period 1979-2005,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010901435

Sovereign debt in Latin America : 1820 - 1913

Della Paolera, Gerardo; Taylor, Alan M. - In: Revista de historia económica 31 (2013) 2, pp. 173-218

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191944

The origin and resolution of debt crises : it is now always fiscal!

Frenkel, Roberto - In: Comparative economic studies 55 (2013) 3, pp. 431-453

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010187966

Turkey at the Crossroads; From Crisis Resolution to EU Accession

McGettigan, Donal; Debrun, Xavier; Griffiths, Mark E. L.; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

The key policy challenge for Turkey in the years ahead will be to enhance and consolidate the advances made since the nationâ€™s 2000-01 economic crisis. Higher growth could reduce unemployment and raise living standards toward European Union levels. This paper reviews Turkeyâ€™s...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005767368

Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods

Karam, Philippe D; Hostland, Doug - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599396

Rules of Thumb for Sovereign Debt Crises

Roubini, Nouriel; Manasse, Paolo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

This paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604956

Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims

Gapen, Michael T.; Gray, Dale F.; Lim, Cheng Hoon; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605090

The effect of IMF lending on the probability of sovereign debt crises

Jorra, Markus - In: Journal of International Money and Finance 31 (2012) 4, pp. 709-725

that IMF programs significantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5–2 percentage … points. These results cannot be attributed to endogeneity bias as they are supported by specifications that explain sovereign … defaults and program participation simultaneously. Furthermore, IMF programs turn out to be especially detrimental to fiscal …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010577046

How costly are debt crises?

Furceri, Davide; Zdzienicka, Aleksandra - In: Journal of International Money and Finance 31 (2012) 4, pp. 726-742

The aim of this paper is to assess the short and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after 8 years. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010573204