Using data from a 2015 national survey of U.S. cities with a population of 50,000 or more, this research examines cities’ responses to a budget crisis. The study develops and tests a model of retrenchment choices that categorizes expenditure- and revenue-related actions implemented by cities...

Adoption of fiscal rules and fiscal councils continued to increase globally over the last decades based on two new global datasets. During the pandemic, fiscal frameworks were put to test. The widespread use of escape clauses was one of the novelties in this crisis, which helped provide policy...

This paper investigates the dynamic impact of natural resource discoveries on government debt sustainability. We use a ‘natural experiment’ framework in which the timing of discoveries is treated as an exogenous source of within-country variation. We combine data on government debt, fiscal...

The suspension of the fiscal rules in Europe and the enactment of NGEU provide an opportunity to rethink the inherited budget orthodoxy. The issue at stake is not only of political economy and institutional changes in the EU. It is also of economic analysis and theory. The coronavirus crisis...

We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to-GDP ratio; and...

Fiscal consolidation literature often neglects that there are economies with a sizable underground sector and that most of time it is accounted in GDP statistics. This produces non negligible effects on fiscal multipliers. This paper explores a fiscal consolidation plan calling for a downsizing...

We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The “need” to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the...

Regarding a prospective reform of the European Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) it seems rather consensual that a simplified framework should take account of the prevailing macroeconomic context and enhance the balancing of sustainability and stabilisation considerations. This paper provides...

This article provides an overview of the main tax changes introduced by the Portuguese State Budget for 2012.The Portuguese State Budget for 2012 (the budget) is, most likely, the most ruthless piece of legislation approved in the roughly 40 years of Portugal's democracy. Nevertheless, the...

AbstractAccurate forecasting is critical for an efficient fiscal policy framework since it impacts consumer sentiments, business confidence, domestic and international institutions. Forecasts will be evaluated for accuracy, bias and efficiency, using ME, MAE, RMSE, Theil’s U statistic and the...