We study an optimal robust monetary policy for a small open economy. The robust control approach assumes that economic agents cannot assign probabilities to a set of plausible models and rather focuses on the worst possible misspecification from a benchmark model. Our findings suggest that,...

This paper derives and presents mean leads and lags as well as patterns of relative importance weights implied by the PAC (polynomial-adjustment-cost) error-correction equations which form the core of the FRB/US model at the Federal Reserve Board. Relative importance weights measure the...

We connect variational preferences with the likelihood functions and prior probabilities over parameters that are building blocks of statistics and econometrics. We use relative entropy and other statistical divergences as cost functions in the variational preferences of someone who is ambiguous...

This paper provides a general representation of endogenous and threshold-based regime switching models and develops an efficient numerical solution method. The regime-switching is triggered endogenously when some variables cross threshold conditions that can themselves be regime-dependent. We...

Modeling is the precursor to software development. The book covers practical models used in the development of operational information systems. In the business environment, models of organizations, IT infrastructures, and system landscapes also play an important role. Typical use cases and their...

We introduce a general approach for analyzing large-scale text-based data, combining the strengths of neural network language processing and generative statistical modeling to create a factor structure of unstructured data for downstream regressions typically used in social sciences. We generate...