In this paper, we characterize adversarial decision-making as a choice between competing interpretations of evidence ("models") constructed by interested parties. We show that if a court cannot perfectly determine which party's model is more likely to have generated the evidence, then...

We present a new model for pricing electricity swaps. Two general factors affect all contracts but unique risk factors affect each contract. General factors are average swap prices and deterministic trend-seasonal components, and unique factors are forward premiums. Innovations follow MNIG...

We model inter-temporal ambiguity as the scenario in which a Bayesian learner holds more than one prior distribution over a set of parameters and provide necessary and sufficient condition for ambiguity to fade away because of learning. Our condition applies to most learning environments: iid...

While Bayesian methods have attracted considerable interest in actuarial science, they are yet to be embraced in large-scaled insurance predictive modeling applications, due to inefficiencies of Bayesian estimation procedures. The paper presents an efficient method that parallelizes Bayesian...

Purpose: This chapter reports on a rapidly growing trend in the analysis of data about emerging market economies – the use of baseline models as comparisons for explanatory models. Baseline models estimate expected values for the dependent variable in the absence of a hypothesized causal...

During recent decades, many new models have emerged in pure and applied economic theory according between Epstein (2010) and Klibanoff et al. (2012) identified a notable behavioral issue that distinguishes sharply between two classes of models of ambiguity sensitivity that are importantly...