In this paper, we study the out-of-sample properties of robust empirical optimization and develop a theory for data-driven calibration of the “robustness parameter” for worst-case maximization problems with concave reward functions. Building on the intuition that robust optimization reduces...

A standard approach to estimating structural parameters in life-cycle models imposes sufficient assumptions on the data to identify the “age profile" of outcomes, then chooses model parameters so that the model's age profile matches this empirical age profile. I show that this approach is both...

We provide a methodology for testing a polynomial model hypothesis by extending the approach and results of Baek, Cho, and Phillips (2015; Journal of Econometrics; BCP) that tests for neglected nonlinearity using power transforms of regressors against arbitrary nonlinearity. We examine and...

We develop a discretization method for continuous-time bioeconomic models. Based on this method, we develop a discrete-time bioeconomic model to analyze seasonality in fisheries. The discretization method consists of three steps: first, we estimate a proper growth function for the...

While historians of economics have noted the transition toward empirical work in economics since the 1970s, less understood is the shift toward "quasi-experimental" methods in applied microeconomics. Angrist and Pischke (2010) trumpet the wide application of these methods as a "credibility...

Economic literature is far from having a consensus about the social value of public information. Nevertheless, most studies agree that strategic complementarity increases the weight of public signals in private actions. In our paper we show that this result is not general. In a two-region model...

This study revisits the Meese-Rogoff puzzle by estimating the traditional monetary models of exchange rate determination in state-space form and comparing the accuracy of these forecasts against the naïve random walk model using a wide range of conventional and alternative measures of...

The Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on policy rates is one of the key monetary policy issues du jour. In this paper we investigate the problem of modelling and estimating the ZLB in a simple New Keynesian model with regime switches. The key features of the model include switches in the time preference...

The analysis of highly structured data requires models with unobserved components (random effects) able to adequately account for the patterns of variances and correlations. The specification of the unobserved components is a key and challenging task. In this paper, we first review the...