Japan’s more than a decade long “Great Recession†has presented a disconcerting case of what could happen if interest rates are bounded by zero and deflation sets in. Since Krugman (1998), the commonplace observation is that the deflationary situation combined with the zero...

Japan’s more than a decade long “Great Recession†has presented a disconcerting case of what could happen if interest rates are bounded by zero and deflation sets in. Since Krugman (1998), the commonplace observation is that the deflationary situation combined with the zero...

This paper makes three contributions to the literature on dynamic factor analysis. Firstly, we investigate the identification problem for a general class of causal dynamic factor model and provide conditions under which the model is identified. Secondly, we present an analytical expression for...

A Kalman filter can be used for the estimation of a model’s parameters, when the model relies on non observable data. In finance, this kind of problem arises for example with term structure models of interest rates, term structure models of commodity prices, and with the market portfolio in...

Conventional Phillips-curve models that are used to estimate the output gap detect a substantial decline in potential output due to the present crisis. Using a multivariate state space model, we show that this result does not hold if the long run role of excess liquidity (that we estimate...