Recent work in the macroeconometric literature considers the problem of summarising efficiently a large set of variables and using this summary for a variety of purposes including forecasting. This paper applies a new factor extraction method to the extraction of core inflation and forecasting...

How do firms differ, and why do they differ even within narrowly defined industries? Using evidence from six high-tech, manufacturing industries covering a 24-year period, we show that differences in sales, materials, labor costs and capital across firms can largely be summarized by a single,...

A Kalman filter, suitable for application to a stationary or a non-stationary time series, is proposed. It works on time series with missing values. It can be used on seasonal time series where the associated state space model may not satisfy the traditional observability condition. A new...

The vector innovations structural time series framework is proposed as a way of modelling a set of related time series. As with all multivariate approaches, the aim is to exploit potential interseries dependencies to improve the fit and forecasts. The model is based around an unobserved vector...

The vector innovations structural time series framework is proposed as a way of modelling a set of related time series. As with all multivariate approaches, the aim is to exploit potential interseries dependencies to improve the fit and forecasts. The model is based around an unobserved vector...

The econometric literature offers various modeling approaches for analyzing micro data in combination with time series of aggregate data. This paper discusses the estimation of a VAR model that allows unobserved heterogeneity across observation unit, as well as unobserved time-specific...

The econometric literature offers various modeling approaches for analyzing micro data in combination with time series of aggregate data. This paper discusses the estimation of a VAR model that allows unobserved heterogeneity across observation unit, as well as unobserved time-specific...