The Theta method of forecasting performed particularly well in the M3-competition and is therefore of interest to forecast practitioners. The description of the method given by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos (2000) involves several pages of algebraic manipulation and is difficult to comprehend....

This paper is concerned with the problem of robust stability of linear dynamic systems with structured uncertainty by means of ellipsoidal set-theoretic approach. In this paper, the uncertainty in the physical parameters is expressed in terms of an ellipsoidal set in appropriate vector space....

In this research note we propose a latent variable model in the spirit of Israilevich and Kuttner (1993) to measure regional manufacturing production. In order to test the validity of the proposed methodology, we apply it for those Spanish regions that have a direct quantitative index. The...

Most macroeconomic data are uncertain - they are estimates rather than perfect measures of underlying economic variables. One symptom of that uncertainty is the propensity of statistical agencies to revise their estimates in the light of new information or methodological advances. This paper...

This paper serves as an introduction and survey for economists to the field of sequential Monte Carlo methods which are also known as particle filters. Sequential Monte Carlo methods are simulation based algorithms used to compute the high-dimensional and/or complex integrals that arise...

We consider interest rate models of Heath-Jarrow-Morton type where the forward rates are driven by a multidimensional Wiener process, and where the volatility structure is allowed to be a smooth functional of the present forward rate curve. In a recent paper (to appear in Mathematical Finance )...

We provide a new approach to automatic business forecasting based on an extended range of exponential smoothing methods. Each method in our taxonomy of exponential smoothing methods can be shown to be equivalent to the forecasts obtained from a state space model. This allows (1) the easy...

We consider interest rate models of Heath-Jarrow-Morton type where the forward rates are driven by a multidimensional Wiener process, and where the volatility structure is allowed to be a smooth functional of the present forward rate curve. <p> In a recent paper (to appear in "Mathematical Finance"...</p>

We investigate the construction of more precise estimates of a collection of population means using information about a related variable in the context of repeated sample surveys. The method is illustrated using poll results concerning presidential approval rating (our related variable is...