Two sources of asymmetry in the Phillips curve are considered: the "capacity constraint hypothesis" and downward rigidity on wages and/or prices. The short run trade-off between inflation changes and the unemployment gap is modeled in a state-space framework that allows for time variation in...

We consider interest rate models of Heath-Jarrow-Morton type, where the forward rates are driven by a multidimensional Wiener process, and where the volatility is allowed to be an arbitrary smooth functional of the present forward rate curve. Using ideas from differential geometry as well as...

A continuous monitoring of the evolution of the economy is fundamental for the decisions of public and private decision makers. This paper proposes a new monthly indicator of the euro area real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with several original features. First, it considers both the output side...