We show how to compute patterns of variation over time, both among and within countries, that determine the international term structure of interest rates, using maximum likelihood within a linear Gaussian state-space framework. The simultaneous estimation of common factors (shared by all...

Recent literature has argued that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into inflation has been declining following a dramatic change in inflation environment during the 1990s. We formally check this hypothesis for a sample of 12 emerging and developed economies, by making use of a state-space model...

The flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) has the effect of shifting trade patterns, especially those of developing countries. With FDI flow growth, vertical intra-industry trade increases as those production-fragmentation-led investments mature. This relation is readily apparent in the...

We develop a dynamic factor model for panel data with a short time dimension (i.e. n15). Unlike most of the work in the DFM literature where one common factor is estimated for a group of cross sectional units, our interest lies in the estimation of a latent variable for each cross sectional unit...

The demand forecasting is essential for all production and non-production systems. However, nowadays there are only few researches on this area. Most of researches somehow benefited from simulation in the conditions of demand uncertainty. But this paper presents an iterative method to find most...

Traditional unobserved component models assume that the trend, cycle and seasonal components of an individual time series evolve separately over time. Although this assumption has been relaxed in recent papers that focus on trend-cycle interactions, it remains at the core of all seasonal...

The paper deals with the estimation of monthly indicators of economic activity for the Euro area and its largest member countries that possess the following attributes: relevance, representativeness and timeliness. Relevance is obtained by referring our monthly indicators to gross domestic...

This dissertation consists of three essays that have a common focus on the econometrics of survey expectations data. Such data play a crucial role in economics. First, as most decisions depend on expectations, these data facilitate a better understanding of economic dynamics. Second, survey data...