The purpose of the present paper is to investigate perceived inflation gap persistence using actual data of professional forecasts. We derive the unobserved perceived inflation gap persistence and using a state dependent model we estimate the non-linear persistence coefficient of inflation gap....

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate perceived inflation gap persistence using actual data of professional forecasts. We derive the unobserved perceived inflation gap persistence and using a state dependent model we estimate the non-linear persistence coefficient of inflation gap....

We estimate a state-dependent multifactor model with two endogenous states. Its pricing accuracy is slightly superior to that of the Fama and French (1993, 1996) model. We have evidence for dramatically increased factor loadings for distress factors in one state. These results have implications...