Forecasts play a critical role at inflation targeting central banks, such as the Bank of England. Breaks in the forecast performance of a model can potentially incur important policy costs. Commonly used statistical procedures, however, implicitly put a lot of weight on type I errors (or false...

Forecasts play a critical role at inflation targeting central banks, such as the Bank of England. Breaks in the forecast performance of a model can potentially incur important policy costs. Commonly used statistical procedures, however, implicitly put a lot of weight on type I errors (or false...

A decision maker has to recommend a treatment, knows that any outcome will be in [0; 1] but only has minimal information about the likelihood of outcomes (there is no prior). The decision maker can design a finite number of experiments in which treatments are tested. For the case of two...