We study the falsifiability and identification of Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) when each player's utility and error distribution are relaxed to be unknown non-parametric functions. Using variations of players' choices across a series of games, we first show that both the utility function...

This paper summarizes and assesses several of the most popular methods to seasonally adjust weekly data. The industry standard approach, known as X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is suitable only for monthly or quarterly data. Given the increased availability and promise of non-traditional data at higher...

The macroeconomy is a complicated dynamic system with significant uncertainties that make modelling difficult. Consequently, decision-makers consider multiple models that provide different predictions and policy recommendations and then synthesize that information into a policy decision. We use...

We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. In this model, the presence of the lagged latent variable, which captures the autocorrelation in the recession binary variable, results in an intractable likelihood with a high dimensional integral. Therefore, we employ...

We use small-area estimation methods that combine information from a household budget survey, a much larger survey of local demographics and employment, and area-level information on bank account outflows and energy consumption to estimate average equivalised consumption measures across 367...

This paper provides details on the sampling design, the fieldwork, as well as nonresponse and population adjustments for the 2024 sample M10 of the IAB-SOEP-Migration survey. The survey is conducted in cooperation between the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and the Socio-Economic Panel...

Sample S is the 2024 refreshment sample of the SOEP-Core. We applied a stratified two-stage cluster sampling design to draw a sample of anchor persons from the German population register. The sample adds 5,314 new households to the panel. Potential selectivity in participation is corrected by...

This report provides details on the sampling design, the fieldwork, as well as nonresponse and population adjustments for the 2024 sample M8d of the IAB-SOEP-Migration Survey. The survey is conducted in cooperation between the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and the Socio-Economic Panel...

On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and claimed that the agency's data were "rigged." In the aftermath, measures of economic policy uncertainty rose sharply, consistent with the idea that reduced trust in official data increases...