Intergenerational persistence estimates are susceptible to several well-documented biases arising from income measurement, and it has become standard practice to construct income measures to mitigate these. However, remaining bias can lead to a spurious grandparent coefficient estimate in...

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the...

I assess the stability of the monetary environment in Switzerland over the past two centuries. In order to control for transitory measurement errors, in particular in nineteenth century data, I use an unobserved-components stochastic-volatility model to extract the permanent trends from several...

In this paper, I study identification of a nonseparable model with endogeneity arising due to unobserved heterogeneity. Identification relies on the availability of binary proxies that can be used to control for the unobserved heterogeneity. I show that the model is identified in the limit as...

This paper examines the extent to which errors in economic forecasts are driven by initial assumptions that prove to be incorrect ex post. Therefore, we construct a new data set comprising an unbalanced panel of annual forecasts from different institutions forecasting German GDP and the...

Maximising returns is often the primary goal of asset management but managing and mitigating portfolio risk also plays a significant role. Successful active investing requires outperformance of a benchmark through skillful stock selection and market timing, but these bets necessarily give rise...

Maximum likelihood estimation has been the workhorse of statistics for decades, but alternative methods, going under the name “regularization,” are proving to have lower predictive variance. Regularization shrinks fitted values towards the overall mean, much like credibility does. There is...

Despite their effectiveness, linear models for realized variance neglect measurement errors on integrated variance and exhibit several forms of misspecification due to the inherent nonlinear dynamics of volatility. We propose new extensions of the popular approximate long-memory HAR model apt to...