Past empirical work has shown that implied volatility, while forward looking, bears little useful information about future returns for assets. We take a closer look at the mathematical nature of implied volatility in order to show, at least in theory, that implied volatility must carry an...

In this paper, we conduct uniform inference of two widely used versions of the Phillips curve, specifically the random-walk Phillips curve and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). For both specifications, we propose a potentially time-varying natural unemployment (NAIRU) to address the...

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the...

This paper provides a method to construct simultaneous confidence bands for quantile and quantile effect functions for possibly discrete or mixed discrete-continuous random variables. The construction is generic and does not depend on the nature of the underlying problem. It works in conjunction...

This paper investigates the finite sample properties of a range of inference methods for propensity score-based matching and weighting estimators frequently applied to evaluate the average treatment effect on the treated. We analyse both asymptotic approximations and bootstrap methods for...