This paper considers inference for conditional moment inequality models using a multiscale statistic. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this test statistic and use the result to propose feasible critical values that have a simple analytic formula, and to prove the asymptotic validity of a...

This paper is concerned with making causal inferences with ecological data. Aggregate outcome information is combined with individual demographic information from separate data sources to make causal inferences about individual behavior. In addressing such problems, even under the selection on...

This paper considers inference on functionals of semi/nonparametric conditional moment restrictions with possibly nonsmooth generalized residuals, which include all of the (nonlinear) nonparametric instrumental variables (IV) as special cases. These models are often ill-posed and hence it is...

Despite dozens of studies, research on crime in the United States has struggled to reach consensus about the impact of right-to-carry (RTC) gun laws. Empirical results are highly sensitive to seemingly minor variations in the data and model. How then should research proceed? We think that policy...

Are optimism shocks an important source of business cycle fluctuations? Are deficit-financed tax cuts better than deficit-financed spending to increase output? These questions have been previously studied using structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) identified with sign and zero restrictions...

In instrumental variable studies, missing instrument data are very common. For example, in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, one can use genotype data as a Mendelian randomization–style instrument, but this information is often missing when subjects do not contribute saliva samples or when the...

In defining selection bias, we have considered only the parallel universe of the treated group or the untreated group rather than including the parallel universe of the untreated group or the treated group. This makes causal inference theories unbalanced because they were developed on one side...

The primary emphasis of quantitative marketing is on the evaluation of firm policies for determination of marketing variables as well as the optimization of these policies. Thus, our methods of inference must apply to decision problems and to policy evaluation. In addition, the data we have...

Errors in probabilistic reasoning have been the focus of much psychology research and are among the original topics of modern behavioral economics. This chapter reviews theory and evidence on this topic, with the goal of facilitating more systematic study of belief biases and their integration...