Search Results - subject:"Statistical inference"

Beyond P-Value-Obsession: When are Statistical Hypothesis Tests Required and Appropriate?

Margarian, Anne - In: German Journal of Agricultural Economics (GJAE) 71 (2022) 4, pp. 213-226

Complementing more specific "p-value discussions", this paper presents fundamental arguments for when null hypothesis statistical significance tests (NHST) are required and appropriate. The arguments, which are paradigmatic rather than technical, are operationalised and broken down to the extent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015079038

Consistent Causal Inference for High Dimensional Time Series

Cordoni, Francesco; Sancetta, Alessio - 2022

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian vector autoregressive process. This is tantamount to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076837

Targeting Moments for Calibration Compared with Indirect Inference

Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng - 2022

A common practice in estimating parameters in DSGE models is to nd a set that when simulated gets close to an average of certain data moments; the model s simulated performance for other moments is then compared to the data for these as an informal test of the model. We call this procedure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077516

Self-Normalization Inference for Linear Trends in Cointegrating Regressions

Cho, Cheol-Keun - 2022

This article highlights the importance of statistical tests on the trend coefficient in cointegrating regressions when the stochastic regressors contain a deterministic linear trend. In addition to deriving asymptotic theory for t statistics constructed using integrated and modified ordinary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014078083

A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys

Del Negro, Marco; Casarin, Roberto; Bassetti, Federico - 2022

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080529

Weak Identification of Long Memory with Implications for Inference

Li, Jia; Phillips, Peter C. B.; Shi, Shuping; Yu, Jun - 2022

This paper explores weak identification issues arising in commonly used models of economic and financial time series. Two highly popular configurations are shown to be asymptotically observationally equivalent: one with long memory and weak autoregressive dynamics, the other with antipersistent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081997

Sources of Size Distortion in Statistical Inference for Average Treatment Effect by Synthetic Controls : A Cautionary Note

Deng, Ai - 2022

The recent literature has underscored the importance of properly accounting for nonstationarity in the application of the synthetic control methods and proposed inference methods to do so. This note studies the size properties of the method proposed by Masini and Medeiros (2022) through...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082399

Robust Inference on Discount Factors

Gauthier, Charles - 2022

This paper derives a novel representation of the exponential discounting model that allows me to set identify the discount factor while accounting for ostensible deviations from optimal behavior. I interpret these deviations as a by-product of measurement error. My approach uses a revealed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082634

Visual Inference and Graphical Representation in Regression Discontinuity Designs

Korting, Christina; Lieberman, Carl; Matsudaira, Jordan D. - 2022

Despite the widespread use of graphs in empirical research, little is known about readers' ability to process the statistical information they are meant to convey ("visual inference"). We study visual inference within the context of regression discontinuity (RD) designs by measuring how...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083988

Optimization in item delivery as risk management : multinomial case using the new method of statistical inference for online decision

Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Sari, Kurnia Novita; … - In: Risks : open access journal 10 (2022) 6, pp. 1-10

online activities on decision making. From the statistical perspective, decision making is related to statistical inference …. In this regard, it is interesting to propose a new method of statistical inference for online decisions. This method is … for the statistical inference procedure. In detail, this paper’s simulation discusses online statistical tests for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013363072