Search Results - subject:"Statistical inference"

Bayesian Inference for Hospital Quality in a Selection Model

Geweke, John; Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Town, Robert J. - 2021

This paper develops new econometric methods to infer hospital quality in a model with discrete dependent variables and non-random selection. Mortality rates in patient discharge records are widely used to infer hospital quality. However, hospital admission is not random and some hospitals may...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212345

Improved regression inference using a second overlapping regression model

Peng, Liang; Einmahl, John H. J. - 2021

Two time series of financial losses may be observed in different overlapping windows, serially dependent, heteroscedastic, and cross-sectionally dependent. Fitting a regression model to each of the two time series, we construct an improved least squares estimator in one series exploiting the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322732

Double robust inference for continuous updating GMM

Kleibergen, Frank - 2021

We propose the double robust Lagrange multiplier (DRLM) statistic for testing hypotheses specified on the pseudo-true value of the structural parameters in the generalized method of moments. The pseudo-true value is defined as the minimizer of the population continuous updating objective...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227368

Statistical Inference in Evolutionary Dynamics

Sawa, Ryoji; Wu, Jiabin - 2021

We introduce evolutionary dynamics for two-action games where agents with diverse preferences use statistical inference … other agents’ actions, use statistical inference to estimate the action distribution in the population, and choose the best … Bayesian sampling equilibrium with statistical inference (SESI) if and only if the aggregate dynamic converges to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240775

Uniform Predictive Inference for Factor Models with Instrumental and Idiosyncratic Betas

Cheng, Mingmian; Liao, Yuan; Yang, Xiye - 2021

This paper investigates the effect of characteristic-based time-varying factor beta on the diffusion-index type forecast. Specifically, the factor beta includes two distinct components: the "instrumental beta'' is a function of some observed stable variables, while the "idiosyncratic beta''...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240929

Inference from Biased Polls

Brownback, Andy; Burke, Nathaniel; Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan - 2021

Poll respondents often attempt to present a positive image by overstating virtuous behaviors. We examine whether people account for this “socially desirable responding” (SDR) when drawing inferences from poll data. In an experiment, we incentivize “predictors” to guess others' choice...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249284

Essays in causal inference

Noack, Claudia Luise Charlotte - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012744700

Retrospective causal inference via matrix completion, with an evaluation of the effect of European integration on cross-border employment

Poulos, Jason; Albanese, Andrea; Mercatanti, Andrea; Li, Fan - 2021

We propose a method of retrospective counterfactual imputation in panel data settings with later-treated and always-treated units, but no never-treated units. We use the observed outcomes to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the later-treated using a matrix completion estimator. We propose a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012581473

Inference using simulated neural moments

Creel, Michael D. - In: Econometrics : open access journal 9 (2021) 4, pp. 1-15

This paper studies method of simulated moments (MSM) estimators that are implemented using Bayesian methods, specifically Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Motivation and theory for the methods is provided by Chernozhukov and Hong (2003). The paper shows, experimentally, that confidence intervals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012642418

Inference on a distribution from noisy draws

Jochmans, Koen; Weidner, Martin - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012698511