Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Tail Expectation (CTE) are the two most frequently applied risk measures in quantitative risk management. Recently, expectile has also attracted much attention as a risk measure due to its elicitability property. This paper establishes empirical likelihood...

“Crowds” are often regarded as “wiser” than individuals, and prediction markets are often regarded as effective methods for harnessing this wisdom. If the agents in prediction markets are Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then the no-trade theorem implies that we...

``Crowds'' are often regarded as ``wiser'' than individuals, and prediction markets are often regarded as effective methods for harnessing this wisdom. If the agents in prediction markets are Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then the no-trade theorem implies that we should...

Making inferences about aggregate business cycles from regional variation alone is difficult because of economic channels and shocks that differ between regional and aggregate economies. However, we argue that regional business cycles contain valuable information that can help discipline models...

We study semi-parametric inference in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of order p augmented by unobservable common factors with a dynamic described by a VAR process of order q. This state-space specification is useful to define a network of interconnectedness and to measure separately the...

Identification via heteroskedasticity exploits differences in variances across regimes to identify parameters in simultaneous equations. I study weak identification in such models, which arises when variances change very little or the variances of multiple shocks change close to proportionally....

We develop non-asymptotically justified methods for hypothesis testing about the $p-$dimensional coefficients $\theta^{*}$ in (possibly nonlinear) regression models. Given a function $h:\,\mathbb{R}^{p}\mapsto\mathbb{R}^{m}$, we consider the null hypothesis $H_{0}:\,h(\theta^{*})\in\Omega$...

The IRR (dollar-weighted return) reflects the periodic addition or withdrawal of funds by investors, and the difference between IRR and geometric mean is widely used to indicate the impact that the timing of these flows has had on investor returns. This is a biased measure, since it is also...

This paper studies inference on finite population average and local average treatment effects under limited overlap, meaning some strata have a small proportion of treated or untreated units. We model limited overlap in an asymptotic framework sending the propensity score to zero (or one) with...

Centralized school assignment algorithms must distinguish between applicants with the same preferences and priorities. This is done with randomly assigned lottery numbers, nonlottery tie-breakers like test scores, or both. The New York City public high school match illustrates the latter, using...