This paper describes work in progress on data quality, an important element of greater transparency in economic policy and financial stability. Data quality is being dealt with systematically by the IMF through the development of data quality assessment frameworks complementing the IMF’s...

“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of...

A simple, dynamic selection procedure is proposed, based on conditional, expected profits using Markov chain models with memory. The method is easy to apply, only frequencies and mean values have to be calculated or estimated. The method is empirically illustrated using a data set from a...

Polyhedral methods for choice-based conjoint analysis provide a means to adapt choice-based questions at the individual-respondent level and provide an alternative means to estimate partworths when there are relatively few questions per respondent, as in a Web-based questionnaire. However, these...

Normative models typically suggest that prices rise in periods of high demand and cost. However, in many markets, prices fall when demand or costs rise. This inconsistency occurs because the normative models assume that competitive intensity does not change with demand and cost conditions over...

We introduce methods from statistical learning theory to the field of conjoint analysis for preference modeling. We present a method for estimating preference models that can be highly nonlinear and robust to noise. Like recently developed polyhedral methods for conjoint analysis, our method is...

In increasingly competitive and deregulated service environments, telecommunications service providers are interested in using advertising to stimulate usage. Measuring response in telephone usage to advertising presents difficulties because the effects are likely to be small, and the usage...

A latent class model for identifying classes of subjects in paired comparison choice experiments is developed. The model simultaneously estimates a probabilistic classification of subjects and the logit models' coefficients relating characteristics of objects to choices for each respective group...

Sales promotions generate substantial short-term sales increases. To determine whether the sales promotion bump is truly beneficial from a managerial perspective, we propose a system of store-level regression models that decomposes the sales promotion bump into three parts: cross-brand effects...

Some statistical methods developed recently in the biometrics and econometrics literature show great promise for improving the analysis of duration times in marketing. They incorporate the right censoring that is prevalent in duration times data, and can be used to make a wide variety of useful...