In this paper we develop a general class of dynamic brand choice models, called (LB) models, which are consistent with the theory of random utility maximization of consumer choice behavior. The underlying random utility process is Markov, and the inter-temporal evolution of the...

Direct marketing (mail) is a growing area of marketing practice, yet the academic journals contain very little research on this topic. The most important issue for direct marketers is how to sample targets from a population for a direct mail campaign. Although some selection methods are...

Nonparametric density estimation using a kernel method is proposed to model consumer brand choice. Recent availability of large scanner panel data allows the use of nonparametric approach, which has few or at least fewer underlying assumptions and affords greater structural flexibility. By...

Customer base analysis is concerned with using the observed past purchase behavior of customers to understand their current and likely future purchase patterns. More specifically, as developed in Schmittlein et al. (1987), customer base analysis uses data on the frequency, timing, and dollar...

Among the more prominent truisms in marketing are 80/20 type laws, e.g., 20 percent of the customers account for 80 percent of the purchases. These kinds of statistics indicate a certain degree of in customer purchases; i.e., the extent to which a large portion of the product's total purchases...

The PIMS (Profit Impact of Marketing Strategies) data entail sparse time-series observations for a large number of strategic business units (SBUs), In order to estimate disaggregate marketing mix elasticities of demand, a natural solution is to pool different SBUs. The traditional, a priori...

In this paper, a formal test on prediction errors is developed for the cross-validation of regression models under the simple random splitting framework. Analytic as well as simulation results relate the statistical power of the test to the allocation of sample observations to estimation and...

Multinomial logit models, especially those calibrated on scanner data, often use explanatory variables that are nonlinear functions of the parameters to be estimated. A common example is the smoothing constant in an exponentially weighted brand loyalty variable. Such parameters cannot be...

The full covariance probit model is highly regarded due to the flexibility with which it can represent cross brand effects. Explicit formulae for these cross brand effects for the general N brand case have never appeared in print, nor have the direct elasticities for the model. This note fills...

The objective of this study is to develop an econometric model for the diffusion of innovations at the individual country level, but which also allows the parameters of the process to differ systematically across countries. The conceptualization rests on behavioral and spatial theories of...