It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in post war U.S. GNP data. This paper shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no trend null...

In this paper we derive the standard error of a price index when both prices and tastes or technology are treated as stochastic. Changing tastes or technology are a reason for the weights in the price index to be treated as stochastic, which can interact with the stochastic prices themselves. We...

Despite the impression that the federal statistical system has been starved for resources, the record over the last decade or so, judged by conventional deflation methods, has been one of rough stability. The quality of U.S. international data on commodity and service trade, direct investment,...

This paper develops a method to correct for non-random measurement error in a binary indicator of illicit drugs. Our results suggest that estimates of the effect of self reported prenatal drug use on birth weight are biased upwards by measurement error -- a finding contrary to predictions of a...

When otherwise intelligent investors fail to correct an error, a researcher learns something about what these investors did not know. The investors must not have known about anything which would have allowed them to spot their mistake. If they had, they would have stopped making it.I show how a...

In this paper, we extend the stability notion and Bayesian efficiency notion of Liu (2020) to local ones, as well as his result—that under certain intuitive conditions, stable matchings are Bayesian efficient—to an analogous one for local notions. Furthermore, the extended stability notion,...

Discussion of the GEKS method is spreading in Europe and globally. Many NSO’s are already testing the GEKS and other multilateral methods or are aiming to test these newly proposed methods. But what about the documentation that clarifies how to implement new method to the calculation of the...

Differences between chain and base methods (or strategies) are analyzed. This is a preliminary paper that concentrates on numerical results and new ideas. Omitted proofs will appear in later papers. As in title, we use the term circular or chain error. We do not use milder terms as drift or...

In this study, we examine statistically the dependence between Seasonal Variation of consumed values and the ChainErrors of corresponding excellent indices in different subgroups Ak. First, cyclic seasonal variation of values is calculated by simple regression analysis and the ChainError is...

The estimator holding the central place in the theory of the multivariate "errors-in-the-variables" (EV) model results from performing orthogonal recession on variables rescaled according to the covariance matrix of the errors [7]. Our first principal finding, via Monte Carlo on the univariate...