Forecast combinations, also known as ensemble models, routinely require practitioners to select a model from a massive number of potential candidates. Ten explanatory variables can be grouped into 21078 forecast combinations, and the number of possibilities increases further to 21078+21078 if we...

The Schwartz–Smith two-factor model is commonly used for pricing of derivatives in commodity markets. For estimating and forecasting the term structures of futures prices, the logarithm of commodity spot price is represented as the sum of short- and long-term factors being the unobservable...

Multivariate distributional forecasts have become widespread in recent years. To assess the quality of such forecasts, suitable evaluation methods are needed. In the univariate case, calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used. However, multivariate...

The confidence interval is an important statistical estimator of population location and dispersion parameters. The paper considers a robust modified confidence interval, which is an adjustment of the Student's t confidence interval based on the decile mean and decile standard deviation for...

For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points - statistics - and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances - stories. This paper...

In this paper, a new Poisson area-biased Ailamujia distribution has been formulated to analyse count data. It was created by combining two distributions: the Poisson and area-biased Ailamujia distributions, using the compounding technique. Several distributional properties of the formulated...