We introduce the notion of a Conditional Hypothesis Testing System (CHTS) that specifies the concrete mode of non-Bayesian reactions for unexpected news in a conditional world. We show that Ortoleva's (2012) Hypothesis Testing Model (HTM) gives rise to a CHTS and thus provides an axiomatic...

Bayesian decisions are observationally identical to decisions with judgment. Decisions with judgment test whether a judgmental decision is optimal and, in case of rejection, move to the closest boundary of the confidence interval, for a given confidence level. The resulting decisions condition...

We show that under standard assumptions the elements of the impact matrix of the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) are always at least set identified and bounded by the standard deviations of the corresponding reduced form errors. This result facilitates valid Bayesian inference without...

This study replicates the paper "Brown, J. P., Lambert, D. M., & Wojan, T. R. (2019). The effect of the conservation reserve program on rural economies: deriving a statistical verdict from a null finding. American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 101 (2), 528-540" and their procedure for...