We develop a stochastic model for assessing the life-cycle cost and availability of wind turbines resulting from different maintenance scenarios, with the objective to identify the most cost-effective maintenance strategy. Using field-data based reliability models, the wind turbine – in terms...

We propose a novel method to estimate dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility. First, we characterize the properties of the solution to this class of models. Second, we take advantage of the results about the structure of the solution to build a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to...

The goal of this paper is to present the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and used at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper describes how the model works, how it is estimated, how it rationalizes past history, including the Great Recession, and how it is...

We explore in this paper cubature formulas over the space of functions having a first continuous derivative, i.e., C^1. We show that known cubature formulas are not optimal in this case and explain what is the origin of the loss of optimality and how to construct optimal ones; to illustrate we...

It has been argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the...

The Chicago Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is used for policy analysis and forecasting at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. This article describes its specification and estimation, its dynamic characteristics and how it is used to forecast the US economy. In many...