Huber, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Piribauer, Philipp - Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department … - 2014
This paper proposes a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model with common stochastic volatility to forecast … stochastic volatility significantly outperforms the random walk both in terms of root mean squared errors as well as Bayesian log … predictive scores. The BVAR model without stochastic volatility, on the other hand, underperforms relative to the random walk. In …