In state-of-the-art macroeconomic and labor market models shocks are assumed to be homoscedastic. However, we show that this assumption is much too restrictive. We �find signifi�cant evidence for strong time-varying volatility in all considered labor market time series. First, we estimate...

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time frame-work that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are presented. First, we derive arbitrage-free pricing rules...

This paper investigates how inflation expectations evolve. In particular, we analyze the time-varying nature of the propensity to update expectations and its potential determinants. For this purpose we set up a flexible econometric model that tracks the formation of inflation expectations of...