We study the statistical relationship between the world business cycle and the global temperature cycle. To amplify the signal-to-noise ratio, we estimate a two-state latent dynamic process from the original data using the endogenous regime-switching methodology. Subsequently, we apply a...

We study the statistical relationship between the world business cycle and the global temperature cycle. To amplify the signal-to-noise ratio, we estimate a two-state latent dynamic process from the original data using the endogenous regime-switching methodology. Subsequently, we apply a...

We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements - dollar trinity - rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data:...

We present a Bayesian structural Vector Autoregressive model of the global wheat market to examine the relative importance of supply and demand shocks, which are interpreted as the fundamental driving forces of wheat price. To our knowledge, this is the first SVAR analysis that jointly considers...

We present a Bayesian structural Vector Autoregressive model of the global wheat market to examine the relative importance of supply and demand shocks, which are interpreted as the fundamental driving forces of wheat price. To our knowledge, this is the first SVAR analysis that jointly considers...

We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements - dollar trinity - rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data:...

This paper estimates the output cost of fighting inflation-the sacrifice ratio-for the South African economy using quarterly data spanning the period 1998Q1-2019Q3. To compute the sacrifice ratio, the structural vector autoregressive model developed by Cecchetti and Rich (2001) based on...

This paper estimates the output cost of fighting inflation-the sacrifice ratio-for the South African economy using quarterly data spanning the period 1998Q1-2019Q3. To compute the sacrifice ratio, the structural vector autoregressive model developed by Cecchetti and Rich (2001) based on...