In conventional proxy VAR analysis, the shocks of interest are identified by external instruments. This is typically accomplished by considering the covariance of the instruments and the reduced-form residuals. Alternatively, the instruments may be internalized by augmenting the VAR process by...

We construct a narrative instrument for government investment from official records in Germany. Using structural vector autoregressions, we document a significant crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of roughly 2. Then, we match a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general...

The article documents the construction of a narrative instrument for government investment, used in the paper 'An Estimation and Decomposition of the Government Investment Multiplier'.

This paper analyzes possibly time-varying shock transmission in structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models when the reduced-form VAR coefficients are time-invariant and the shocks are identified through non-Gaussianity. To check for possible time-variation in the impulse responses, we propose...

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of two recent major geopolitical events on the euro area economy, namely, the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To take into account the heterogeneity of geopolitical events, we do not seek to identify a homogeneous...

This note explores conditional forecasting under conditions on annual growth rates, where variables enter a (possibly structural) vector autoregressive (VAR) model in logarithms or logarithmic first differences. For example, imposing conditions on the annual growth rate of quarterly real GDP...

Recursive SVAR models are identified by covariance conditions derived from the assumption of uncorrelated shocks. Recent literature has advocated using additional higher‐order moment conditions implied by independent shocks. This paper characterizes the redundancy properties of these...

We replicate a study by Känzig (American Economic Review, 111 (2021), 1092-1125), who employs structural vector autoregressive techniques to examine the impact of changes in oil supply expectations on the price of oil and other macroeconomic aggregates. Känzig identifies an oil supply news...