Search Results - subject:"Subjective Probability"

A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment

Haran, Uriel; Moore, Don A.; Morewedge, Carey K. - In: Judgment and Decision Making 5 (2010) 7, pp. 467-476

Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES) method is robust to range widths and interval grain sizes. Its carryover effects …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008777048

A parametric analysis of prospect theory's functionals for the general population

Booij, Adam S.; van Praag, Bernard M. S.; van de … - 2009

This paper presents the results of an experiment that completely measures the utility function and probability weighting function for different positive and negative monetary outcomes, using a representative sample of N = 1935 from the general public. The results confirm earlier findings in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276981

A parametric analysis of prospect theory's functionals for the general population

Booij, Adam S.; van Praag, Bernard M. S.; van de … - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277017

Choice deferral and ambiguity aversion

Kopylov, Igor - In: Theoretical Economics 4 (2009) 2, pp. 199-225

When confronted with uncertain prospects, people often exhibit both choice deferral and Ellsberg-type ambiguity aversion. This paper obtains a joint representation for these behavioral phenomena. The decision maker as portrayed by my model is willing to choose an uncertain prospect f over g...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011599419

Decisiones bajo incertidumbre

Velez-Pareja, Ignacio - MASTER CONSULTORES - 2009

Este es material de curso del libro Decisiones Empresariales bajo Riesgo e Incertidumbre. El nivel del libro es basico. Se usan muy pocas matematicas y puede ser usado por gerentes. En este tercer capitulo se trata la idea de la incertidumbre. Se ilustran los diferentes enfoques de teoria de...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010762948

Producer Perceptions of Corn, Soybean and Cotton Price Risk

Riley, John Michael; Anderson, John D. - Southern Agricultural Economics Association - SAEA - 2009

Risk is an inevitable part of agricultural production and all producers face various forms of risk. This study used the subjective price expectations and price distributions of survey participants to determine how producer’s expectations compare with that of the market. Data used for this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004989153

A Parametric Analysis of Prospect Theory's Functionals for the General Population

Booij, Adam S.; Praag, Bernard M.S. Van; Kuilen, Gijs Van De - CESifo - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000376

Are Brazilian corn farmers overconfident about prices?

Junior, Cruz; Cesar, Jose - Agricultural and Applied Economics Association - AAEA - 2009

This paper aims to identify signs of overconfidence among corn producers in south and central-west Brazil. Over the period from October to November 2008, farmers were chosen to answer questions regarding their knowledge of futures markets and price expectations. A large part of subjects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012550

A Parametric Analysis of Prospect Theory's Functionals for the General Population

Booij, Adam S.; Praag, Bernard M. S. van; van de … - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

and losses, loss aversion, subjective probability weighting Corresponding author: Adam S. Booij Amsterdam School … subjective probability weighting function that is assumed to have an inverse-S shape, reflecting increased sensitivity toward … framework, risk attitudes are jointly determined by utility curvature and subjective probability weighting, where outcomes are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822425

Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households

Hurd, Michael; Rooij, Maarten van; Winter, Joachim - de Nederlandsche Bank - 2009

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate these puzzles, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008522673