Search Results - subject:"Subjective Probability"

Probabilistic Sophistication and Stochastic Monotonicity in the Savage Framework

Grant, Simon; Ozsoy, Hatice; Polak, Ben - Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University - 2007

Machina & Schmeidler (1992) show that probabilistic sophistication can be obtained in a Savage setting without imposing expected utility by dropping Savage's axiom P2 (sure-thing principle) and strengthening his axiom P4 (weak comparative probability). Their stronger axiom, however, embodies a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005464036

Confidence intervals for maximal reliability of probability judgments

Lam, K.Y.; Koning, A.J.; Franses, Ph.H.B.F. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2007

multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability. It improves the reliability of the subjective probability … describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability. It improves the reliability of … Netherlands 1 probabilities. A person’s subjective probability is the degree of belief a per- son holds regarding a statement or …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972198

Confidence intervals for maximal reliability of probability judgments

Franses, Philip Hans; Lam, Lam, K.Y.; Koning, Koning, A.J. - Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus … - 2007

multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability. It improves the reliability of the subjective probability …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731591

Preferences over Consumption and Status

Vostroknutov, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007

In many models of interdependent preferences the payoffs have not only personal value but also enter the social part of the utility. This duality creates a problem of distinguishing what influences the choice more: consumption or social concerns. To identify what drives the behavior it is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005620020

Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters

García, Juan Angel; Manzanares, Andrés - 2007

Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604882

Information Theory and Knowledge-Gathering

Murphy, Roy E - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2006

It is assumed that human knowledge-building depends on a discrete sequential decision-making process subjected to a stochastic information transmitting environment. This environment randomly transmits Shannon type information-packets to the decision-maker, who examines each of them for relevancy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005790369

Preferences over consumption and status

Vostroknutov, Alexander - In: Theory and Decision 74 (2013) 4, pp. 509-537

Experimental evidence suggests that individual consumption has not only personal value but also enters the social part of the utility. Existing models of social preferences make ad hoc parametric assumptions about the nature of this duality. This creates a problem of experimental identification...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010865858

Context affects the interpretation of low but not high numerical probabilities: A hypothesis testing account of subjective probability

Bilgin, Baler; Brenner, Lyle - In: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 121 (2013) 1, pp. 118-128

Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010636012

Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies

Lahiri, Kajal; Wang, J. George - In: International Journal of Forecasting 29 (2013) 1, pp. 175-190

Evaluation methodologies for rare events from meteorology, psychology and medical diagnosis are used to examine the value of probabilistic forecasts of real GDP declines during the current quarter (Q0) and each of the next four quarters (Q1–Q4) using data from the Survey of Professional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010603360

Choosing a strictly proper scoring rule

Merkle, Edgar C.; Steyvers, Mark - In: Decision analysis : a journal of the Institute for … 10 (2013) 4, pp. 292-304

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010247763