We characterize the intersection of the probabilistically sophisticated and multiple prior models. We show this class is strictly larger than the subjective expected utility model and that its elements can be generated from a generalized class of the -contaminated priors, which we dub the -...

We resolve a useful formulation of the question how a statistician can coherently incorporate the information in a consulted expert’s probability assessment for an event into a personal posterior probability assertion. Using a framework that recognises the total information available as...

This paper presents a general technique for comparing the concavity of different utility functions when probabilities need not be known. It generalizes: (a) Yaariʼs comparisons of risk aversion by not requiring identical beliefs; (b) Kreps and Porteusʼ information-timing preference by not...

This work extends Karni’s direct revelation mechanism for eliciting agents’ subjective beliefs over the distribution of a random variable.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how expert overconfidence and dependence affect the calibration of aggregated probability judgments obtained by various linear opinion‐pooling models. Design/methodology/approach – The authors used a large database containing...

We develop awareness-dependent subjective expected utility by taking unawareness structures introduced in Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper (2006, 2008, 2011a) as primitives in the Anscombe-Aumann approach to subjective expected utility. We observe that a decision maker is unaware of an event if and...