Search Results - subject:"Subjective Probability"

Risk, uncertainty and hidden information

Morris, Stephen - In: Theory and Decision 42 (1997) 3, pp. 235-269

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009401928

IN DEFENSE OF A CONSTRUCTIVE, INFORMATION-BASED APPROACH TO DECISION THEORY

YILMAZ, M. - In: Theory and Decision 43 (1997) 1, pp. 21-44

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009403146

Measurement Errors in Probability Judgments

Ofir, Chezy; Reddy, Srinivas K. - In: Management Science 42 (1996) 9, pp. 1308-1325

-to-hundred subjective probability scale and two seven point rating scales. Individual level analysis applied to data obtained from two … scales are consistently just as reliable as the subjective probability scale. The probability scale contained significant … variance than the subjective probability scale. The paper concludes with a discussion regarding possible explanations of these …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204443

Belief Assessment: An Underdeveloped Phase of Probability Elicitation

Benson, P. George; Curley, Shawn P.; Smith, Gerald F. - In: Management Science 41 (1995) 10, pp. 1639-1653

A cognitive analysis of subjective probability is applied to the evaluation of techniques used by decision analysts for … eliciting probabilities from experts. The construction of a subjective probability requires both the formation of a belief and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214011

Comparing the Calibration and Coherence of Numerical and Verbal Probability Judgments

Wallsten, Thomas S.; Budescu, David V.; Zwick, Rami - In: Management Science 39 (1993) 2, pp. 176-190

Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and decision analysis, there is considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate opinion. A method is proposed for obtaining and quantitatively evaluating verbal judgments in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197571

Joint Coherence in Games of Incomplete Information

Nau, Robert F. - In: Management Science 38 (1992) 3, pp. 374-387

-known proportions of types. The relation of such game-theoretic solution concepts to subjective probability theory and nonstrategic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203747

A more robust definition of subjective probability

Machina, Mark; Schmeidler, David - University of Bonn, Germany - 1991

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005028256

Figure 4 Manuscript for lecture at Festkollegium for Gerard Debreu

Vind, Karl - University of Bonn, Germany - 1991

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005032130

The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities Obtained Through Decomposition

Ravinder, H. V.; Kleinmuntz, Don N.; Dyer, James S. - In: Management Science 34 (1988) 2, pp. 186-199

The use of decomposition as a procedure for improving the consistency of subjective probability encoding is discussed …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009218407

Calibration and the Expert Problem

French, S. - In: Management Science 32 (1986) 3, pp. 315-321

A decision maker needs to give his subjective probability for a single event of interest, A. Being aware that he has … subjective probability for A. In the light of this information, how should the decision maker form his subjective probability? In …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204014