To understand how decisions to invest in stocks are taken, economists need to elicit expectations relative to expected risk-return trade-off. One of the few surveys which have included such questions is the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999-2001. Using this survey, Dominitz and Manski find...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how expert overconfidence and dependence affect the calibration of aggregated probability judgments obtained by various linear opinion‐pooling models. Design/methodology/approach – The authors used a large database containing...