The power system has to deal with three main sources of uncertainty: demand uncertainty and load prediction errors, failure of power plants and uncertainty of wind. The growing share of wind and other intermittent generation sources in the European supply increases the uncertainty about power...

While high uncertainty is an inherent implication of the economy entering the zero lower bound, deflation is not, because agents are likely to be uncertain about the way policymakers will deal with the large stock of debt arising from a severe recession. We draw this conclusion based on a...

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model in which monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents face uncertainty about the nature of these deviations. When observing a deviation, agents conduct Bayesian learning to infer its likely duration. Under...

A new approach is proposed to estimate a large class of multivariate volatility models. The method is based on estimating equation-by-equation the volatility parameters of the individual returns by quasi-maximum likelihood in a first step, and estimating the correlations based on...

The economy often moves in large jumps. For example, bank runs can quickly cause an economy to suddenly drop into a deep recession. In this paper, bank approval of loans to a genius entrepreneur may cause an economy to jump to a higher income level or growth rate. In a simple model, this implies...

Factor portfolios created by dynamically weighting country indices generated significant global market adjusted returns over the last thirty years. The comparison between stock and country based factor portfolios suggests that country based value, size and momentum factor portfolios implemented...

In this paper, we assess the benefits from international factor diversification under a regime based portfolio construction framework that takes into account the dynamic changes in stock markets. We show that there are significant costs to investors who fail to (a) pursue an international...

This paper aims to test the intrinsic motivation of licensed in-home services (LIHS) employees with an emphasis on the differences in hourly wages paid to the employees of non-profit LIHS and for-profit LIHS employees. Our approach is to test intrinsic motivation by using the “labor...

Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) offer dramatically better data fit than their constant-parameter predecessors. However, computational complications, as well as negative results about the importance of switching in parameters other than shock variances, have...