In the article the author analyses the impact of the Financial Crisis, especially the Greek fiscal one, on the sCDS prices in Europe. The aim of the article is to assess the ability of the sCDS premia to price the risk of countries before and during the Greek crisis. The author analyses sCDS...

This paper empirically examines the relation between energy consumption volatility and unpredictable variations in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK. Estimating the Markov switching ARCH model we find a significant regime switching in the behavior of both energy consumption and GDP...

This paper proposes an empirical study of the shape of recoveries in - nancial markets from a bounce-back augmented Markov Switching model. It relies on models rst applied by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005] to the busi- ness cycle analysis. These models are estimated for monthly stock market...

We develop a theoretical framework to quantitatively assess the general equilibrium effects and welfare implications of central bank reputation and transparency. Monetary policy alternates between periods of active inflation stabilization and periods during which the emphasis on inflation...

We develop a theoretical framework to account for the observed instability of the link between inflation and …fiscal imbalances across time and countries. Current policy makers behavior influences agents' beliefs about the way debt will be stabilized. The standard policy mix consists of a...