Using a new dataset of currency option prices, we study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-98 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the euro. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of...

Can a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an economy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are non-linearly related and jointly endogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over...

This paper presents a univariate model that analyzes systematic changes in the behavior of the business cycle in the Dominican Republic, capturing changes in average growth and identifying differences between contractions and expansions with respect to their persistence and duration. To do so,...

Can a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an econ-omy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are non-linearly related and jointly en-dogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over...

This paper presents some new estimates for the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Brazil based on a new Keynesian hypothesis about the behavior of the economy. Four main hypotheses are tested and sustained throughout the study: i) agents do not have perfect rationality; ii) the...